Cereals

  • Ag markets recovered strongly today after yesterday’s selloff. The main catalyst came from the US where the Trump’s administration would support strongly the use of ethanol and biofuels.
  • The ‘Tuesday turnaround’ and end of month repositioning were also lending support.
  • Domestically, UK wheat prices edged higher for a second consecutive session with the 20-day moving average acting as a resistance area. Winter crops are mostly in good condition and advanced whilst spring plantings are now put on hold due to the recent rain – more precipitation to come by the end of the week.
  • Euronext wheat followed its US counterparts higher and erased yesterday’s losses even if gains were limited as the euro continued to recover against the US Dollar. Another big day of trading for May-17 Euronext wheat (MATIF) with more than 33K lots traded a record for this expiry. Sellers and buyers continue to play cat and mouse at current levels.
  • Egypt is in for an unspecified amount of wheat. Interestingly, the French origin was the cheapest FOB offer at $197/T but including the freight cost, we could see once again Black Sea origin gaining this round again.
  • US Winter wheat ratings were also supportive today – overall, conditions are close to unchanged against last month’s levels but down from last year with wheat rated ‘GD/EX’ at 43%, 44% and 34% respectively for Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. In Montana, the recent cold spell has damaged the crops with a 19 points drop in ‘GD/EX’ vs last month.
  • After the announcement of supports to the US ethanol production, CBOT corn surged nearly 4.8% and lent support to Euronext maize although resistance was seen around the 171-172€ area.

Oilseeds

  • What a day for oilseeds!
  • Bullish announcement re the US biofuels programs propelled the CBOT soybean oil nearly 6% higher at one point during the session – its biggest daily % gain since the EPA amended its biofuel blending targets on Nov . 23rd 2016. CBOT Soybeans and Soymeal were following higher to a lesser extent.
  • Oil World continues to see a record 105MlnT soybean crop in Brazil (95.4MlnT LY) whilst it pegged the Argentine harvest at a 3-year low of 54MlnT due to plantings lost to flooding.
  • After 8 consecutive days of losses, the May-17 Euronext rapeseed contract rebounded sharply to post its biggest daily gain since the end of November.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures prices were mixed today but the front month contract posted a 10.3% loss for the month, the most since August 2014.