Cereals

  • US wheat futures contracts hit new lows today as Canadian wheat planting estimates from StatsCan were higher than traders expected despite being slightly lower than last year as farmers favour canola [See Chart of the Day#1].
  • The large short position funds hold on US wheat coupled with the improving US wheat crop conditions keep prices under pressure.
  • Russian agricultural ministry see the wheat crop declining by 16% on last year to 63.7MT.
  • Concerns remain over dry conditions across Europe as the euro remain stable ahead of the first round of French elections and following the Terrorist attack in Paris.
  • Rainfall is expected to return across main crop producing areas by late next week except in France where the impact of the drought starts to be seen with the share of the FR winter wheat “GD/EX’ down 4% from last week [See Chart of the Day#2].
  • The cold snap which was closely followed by the market is expected to have little impact on crops.
  • For the week (front month): LIFFE wheat -1%; Euronext wheat -1%; CBOT Wheat -6.2%; Kansas wheat -5.7%; Minneapolis wheat -1%; CBOT Corn -3.8%; Euronext Maize +0.3%.

Oilseeds

  • StatsCan Canadian canola plantings estimate was above the trade estimate of 21.3Mac with a 22.3Mac figure released this afternoon [See Chart of the Day#3].
  • Frost remains a threat for EU rapeseed as well as the persistent lack of rainfall.
  • Palm oil continues a recovery on technical buying as traders refocus on the tight palm stocks following an 8 month low being hit by prices.
  • For the week (front month): Euronext Rapeseed +0.4%; ICE Canola +5%; CBOT Soybean -1%; CBOT Soymeal -2.7%; CBOT Soyoil +1.5%; Malaysia palm oil +0.2%; WTI crude oil -6.8%.

Chart of the Day#1: Canadian wheat plantings

Chart of the Day#2: French Winter Wheat rated ‘GD/EX’

Chart of the Day#3: Canadian canola plantings

Futures & Options prices