Cereals

  • With a lack of fresh news and despite a weakening Sterling, UK LIFFE Feed wheat futures prices continued to edge lower today and dropped to a fresh 7-week low of £145.05/T on May-17. For the week, the May-17 contract is down 1.4% or £2/T whilst the new-crop Nov-17 contract has lost £1/T or 0.7%.
  • May-17 Euronext milling wheat (MATIF) finished the week close to equilibrium level but posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak in 9 months after the euro dropped to its lowest level since early Jan against the US Dollar on Wednesday.
  • FranceAgriMer reported an improvement in wheat crop conditions to 93% ‘good to excellent’. It is worth noting that last year ratings were at 94% when ultimately France produced a very poor crop [See Chart of the Day #1].
  • Spring Barley plantings in France seen at 17% against 6% last year – FranceAgriMer.
  • In the US, CBOT and Kansas wheat markets were trading lower today despite weekly export sales of more than 450KT. Note that Mar-17 CBOT option contracts expired today. For the week, Mar-17 CBOT, Kansas and Minneapolis are respectively down 2%, 0.4% and 1%.
  • According to a Reuters poll, South African corn production could jump 68% year on year due to perfect growing conditions.
  • Main USDA Outlook Forum figures for 2017/18:
    • US Corn yield 170.7bu/ac (vs 174.6 LY) / prod. 14.065Bbu (vs 15.148) / stocks 2.215Bbu (vs 2.320);
    • US Wheat prod. 1.837Bbu (vs 2.310 LY) / stocks 905Mbu (vs 1.139Bbu).

Oilseeds

  • Despite rising soy/palm oil prices, Euronext rapeseed futures continued lower for a 7th consecutive session, the longest losing streak since the May-17 contract opened for trading. For the week, May-17 Euronext rapeseed is down more than 3.2% or 13.75€/T.
  • CBOT soybean prices traded slightly higher today but posted a second consecutive weekly loss of 1.9%. Ample supplies arriving from South America and a potential record 88Mac planted area of soy next spring in the US [See Chart of the day #2] were the two main bearish drivers this week. Technically, the May-17 CBOT soybean contract is dangerously close to break its medium term bullish trendline. CBOT Soymeal continues its corrective move too and is fast approaching its short term technical support of $334/sT.
  • Weather forecast continues to favour further rains for South America over the weekend: causing some logistical concerns in northern Brazil re soy exports but seen as mostly beneficial for corn in both Argentina and Brazil.
  • Main USDA Outlook Forum figures for 2017/18:
    • US Soybean yield 48bu/ac (vs 52.1 LY) / prod. 4.180Bbu (vs 4.307) / stocks 420Mbu (unch. from LY).
    • Soybean crush at 1.945Bbu (vs 1.930 LY) and exports at 2.125Bbu (vs 2.050 LY).

Chart of the Day #1: French Wheat and Barley crop condition

Chart of the Day #2: US Soy planted area vs Soy/Corn price ratio

Futures & Options prices