Cereals

  • The April USDA WASDE report was seen as more bearish than expected as both South American corn/soy production estimate and global stocks of wheat, maize and soybeans were pegged above trade estimates.
  • As a result of a bearish report Euronext wheat finished in the red across with the May-17 contract settling at a new contract low.
  • In thin trading volume compared to yesterday’s session, UK LIFFE feed wheat finished mostly lower amid the global grain glut as well as a strengthening Sterling which traded below £0.85 against the euro for the first in more than a week.
  • According to the USDA, 53% of the US winter wheat is in ‘GD/EX’ condition vs 51% LW and 56% LY.
  • Unusual hot and dry weather is likely to continue across Western Europe until next week with potentially beneficial rain arriving from Wed 19th April. A similar pattern could be observed in Ukraine.
  • CONAB has once again raised its 2016/17 Brazil corn production estimate by an additional 2.5MlnT from last month to a new record of 91.47MlnT. This afternoon, the USDA followed the flow and has even been more aggressive pegging the Brazil corn crop at 93.5MlnT (+2MlnT mom).
  • The US agency also raised the Argentine corn output by 1MlnT to 38.5MlnT.

Oilseeds

  • In the wake of a bearish USDA report for soybeans, Euronext rapeseed prices closed lower with the front month May-17 contract finding support on its 200-day moving average technical level.
  • The key figure in today’s USDA report was the South American [Brazil+Argentina+Paraguay]  soybean production forecast which was once again revised higher by an impressive 4.4MlnT to a record 177.1MlnT!
  • On the back of excellent growing conditions, CONAB revised its Brazilian crop estimate by 2.57MlnT to 110.2MlnT due to a record yield of 3.3T/ha.
  • Palm oil prices attempted to rebound today but continue to hover dangerously around the 2,700 ringgit level on the May-17 contract.

Chart of the Day#1: April USDA WASDE overview

Chart of the Day#2: South American Crop Snapshot